19 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1576
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Osmera
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Koutnik
ELO 1531
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Koutnik covers set handicap as underdog 72% (43)
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.