19 Jul · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Pros
ELO 1444
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pros
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1387
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Pros
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H5-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-3)