19 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1509
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dzida
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1475
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Jokiel covers set handicap as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.