19 Jul · 20:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1506
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Matus
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1448
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 71% (31)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)