21 Jul · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1405
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1451
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 64% (59)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H26-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.