21 Jul · 12:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1380
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1486
FormLLWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)