21 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1544
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Muska
JB
🇨🇿Jiri Babinek
ELO 1544
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Muska
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+0
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.