21 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1438
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysek
TS
🇨🇿Tomas Stempak
ELO 1428
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (14)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.