21 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1438
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zajac
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zajac
ELO 1485
FormWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Lysek goes over total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Zajac
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.