21 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1552
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krupnik
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1509
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Raska covers set handicap as underdog 72% (36)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.