21 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1449
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zajac
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zajac
ELO 1485
FormWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Zajac
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.