21 Jul · 14:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sykora
ELO 1543
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sykora
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1514
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 70% (79)
Fair odds · Sykora
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H4-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.