21 Jul · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1405
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marat
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1380
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Marat goes over total as favourite 74% (34)
Fair odds · Marat
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.