21 Jul · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jakub Joksch
ELO 1512
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Muska
JM
🇨🇿Jan Muska
ELO 1544
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Muska
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.