21 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1438
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1449
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek goes over total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.14· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H24-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.