21 Jul · 13:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1405
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1486
FormLLWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 64% (59)
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)