21 Jul · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TS
🇨🇿Tomas Stempak
ELO 1428
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1449
FormLWLWL
48%
52%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (32)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.