21 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇨🇿Filip Sikora
ELO 1622
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sikora
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1619
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Sikora
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.