21 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.