21 Jul · 20:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1663
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1647
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorisek
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H146-174
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.