21 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1663
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
DJ
🇨🇿David Jicha
ELO 1646
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jicha🌟Jicha covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H71-94
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.