21 Jul · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1623
FormLWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chvatal
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)