21 Jul · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1490
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kanak
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1439
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kanak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.