21 Jul · 17:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1449
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Cesak
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cesak
ELO 1566
FormWWLLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matousch🌟Cesak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (47)
Fair odds · Cesak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~73 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H9-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-4)