21 Jul · 22:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1439
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Branny
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1430
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka🌟Branny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.