21 Jul · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1390
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kabelka
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1433
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kabelka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.