21 Jul · 20:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1644
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sarganek
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1636
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Niezgoda🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H34-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.