21 Jul · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇨🇿Martin Zajicek
ELO 1509
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jr
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1513
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (54)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.