21 Jul · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1663
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stusek
PS
🇨🇿Petr Silhan
ELO 1627
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Silhan🌟Silhan covers set handicap as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H61-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.