21 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1619
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Niezgoda
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1636
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🌟Kowal covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H32-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.