21 Jul · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇨🇿Martin Juhasz
ELO 1503
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Juhasz
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1449
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matousch🌟Juhasz goes over total as favourite 72% (32)
Fair odds · Juhasz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.