21 Jul · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1529
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H7-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.