21 Jul · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1390
FormLWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Flesar
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1500
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+110
H2H23-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+110)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-8)