22 Jul · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LR
🇨🇿Lukas Dominik Rek
ELO 1560
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hnizdil
TH
🇨🇿Tomas Hnizdil
ELO 1602
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Rek goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Hnizdil
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.