22 Jul · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1412
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1482
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H11-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-5)