22 Jul · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1424
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysek
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1412
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (15)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.