22 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1553
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1573
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Benes rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (61)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H35-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.