22 Jul · 14:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1482
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1493
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H19-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.