22 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1548
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1561
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 78% (18)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.