22 Jul · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1608
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stepien
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1547
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H122-94
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (122-94)