22 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1587
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Galus
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1611
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H45-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.