22 Jul · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1601
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1638
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vicherek🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 82% (33)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H24-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.