22 Jul · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1579
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1563
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.