22 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1579
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysek
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1592
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 88% (16)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.