22 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1467
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dvorak
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1463
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (25)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H16-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.