22 Jul · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1563
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysek
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1592
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 15% (13)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.