22 Jul · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1400
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1513
FormWLLLW
41%
59%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+113
H2H9-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+113)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-6)