22 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Melichar
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1455
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (40)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.