22 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1497
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1513
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Reska🌟Lasota goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.