22 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1560
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wloszek
SW
🇨🇿Sylwester Wloszek
ELO 1563
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Wloszek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H68-94
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.